Lake Ontario’s level is regulated under Plan 2014 by the International Joint Commission’s Lake Ontario–St. Lawrence River Board, which sets outflow through the Moses-Saunders dam at Massena. There is no announced plan to hold the lake higher; outflows are adjusted weekly. The official word, and the Board’s own level forecasts, are at ijc.org/en/loslrb. The binational six-month forecast is published monthly in the USACE Monthly Bulletin of Great Lakes Water Levels.
Live and historical readings: NOAA CO-OPS station 9052000, Cape Vincent NY (about 3 miles from Carleton Island). Gauge updates every 6 minutes; this page re-checks automatically and refreshes its history and statistics every 6 hours. The “average” is computed from NOAA’s monthly means back to 1918, but weighted toward recent years (exponential decay, ~15-year half-life) so the Plan-2014 regulation era and current hydrology dominate; record high/low still use the all-time extremes. The projection is this page’s own estimate: that seasonal average curve, shifted by today’s surplus over it, with the surplus relaxing back through fall — the gold diamonds show the official USACE June 2026 projection for comparison.
Dock geometry was measured on June 9, 2026 (gauge at 247.1 ft): the dock runs 50 ft from shore; at the end the water was 24″ below the deck (deck ≈ 249.1 ft IGLD85) with 6 ft of water (bottom ≈ 241.1 ft); the side boards reach 4 ft down from the deck.